03.29.20

back to the eagles: picks 21 and 53

Posted in Uncategorized at 5:34 pm by Administrator

howie roseman has certainly delivered this off-season, doing what he can to compensate for philadelphia’s coaching deficiencies by signing on talented, versatile defensive players that will adapt well to whoever succeeds jim schwartz next year. i’ve also respected roseman’s decision to hold off on overpaying for one-dimensional receivers like robby anderson and demarcus robinson. the investments on the defensive side and the relative inaction on offensive players would seem to confirm what most have predicted: that the eagles will look for a receiver early in this draft and may just “double dip” at the position in rounds 1 and 2. i’ve made my thoughts about this fairly clear, but i’ll go into a bit more detail here about why i don’t think the eagles should take a receiver at pick 21.

first of all, the eagles’ offense doesn’t lack for talent, contrary to what many fans might insist. with desean jackson already at full health, the eagles could go into the 2020 season right now with four top-notch receiving options in zach ertz, d-jax, dallas goedert, and miles sanders. that’s more talent to work with than most NFL offenses are able to utilize, and that’s assuming that there’s absolutely no second year leap from jj arcega-whiteside or greg ward. even if alshon jeffery doesn’t play a snap for the eagles in 2020, this is a receiving group that has the ability to support another 4000 yard season from wentz if we require that of him.

second of all, the eagles aren’t a team that requires a home run selection at wide receiver given the way that we structure our offense. this team hasn’t had a 1000 yard receiver other than zach ertz since 2014 (jeremy maclin) because we don’t run our offense through an alpha-male X receiver. it’s mostly to carson’s credit that he doesn’t have to play the game by forcing the ball to his favorite downfield target. the eagles don’t need a deandre hopkins-type receiver to open up the offense, and in fact i’d argue that in a doug pederson-carson wentz offense, a guy like hopkins wouldn’t put up the numbers that he did in houston. that’s partly an indictment of doug pederson, but i think it’s also a fair assessment of this offense; the eagles are at their best when they’re spreading the ball around, throwing to their running backs, and taking advantage of size/strength matchups afforded by their incredibly athletic tight ends.

thirdly, there isn’t a receiver in this draft other than jeudy, lamb, or ruggs that can come in and single-handedly transform this offense on day one. all three will be long gone by pick 21, and i’m not sure it’s in the eagles’ best interests to mortgage future picks in order to move up and grab one of them. shenault, aiyuk, mims, higgins, hamler, reagor, and justin jefferson (in that order) comprise the second tier of receivers, and while there’s much that differentiates them individually, there’s one thing they all have in common: none of them are #1 wide receivers on an NFL offense. justin jefferson, frequently mocked to the eagles at pick 21, is case in point: a finesse player who’s enjoyed clean releases and size mismatches in the slot while playing on the best offense in college football. more than most, jefferson will have to make a leap at the nfl level learning to fight through press coverages and tight windows. shenault is the one guy at pick 21 that might be worth the risk because of his long-term potential as a dynamic 10-15 touch playmaker, but of course we’re all worried about his durability. i wouldn’t spend pick 21 on any of these guys; at least a couple of these guys are likely to fall to us at pick 53, where they’ll have better value. in fact, if i could bank on getting antonio gandy golden (my favorite receiver value in this class) at the end of the 3rd round, i’d recommend passing on receiver entirely through the first two rounds.

now that roseman has picked up will parks and jatavis bryant, i think it’s unlikely that we’ll draft a linebacker or a safety in rounds 1 and 2. to this point, i’ve campaigned for queen and a safety like dugger or winfield with our top two picks, but i’ll grant that these are not premium positions for the eagles, and i think that philadelphia will band-aid these two positions in order to address their more critical needs. those needs are obviously at the WR and CB positions. some might think that with slay and robey-coleman in the fold, roseman can essentially ignore CB in the first two rounds, but that’s simply not the case. the eagles not only lack a legitimate starter opposite of slay but also have very little depth to work with at outside corner. with rasul douglas on his way out of town, sidney jones anything but a sure thing, and avonte maddox’s future possibly in the slot, the eagles have to strongly consider prioritizing cornerback over wide receiver in this draft.

hence, i return to my very first mock, in which i projected kristian fulton to the eagles. if the pundits are right and there’s a strong and early run on offensive tackles in this draft, then it’s looking more and more likely that fulton will be available in the late 1st round. that’s great news for the eagles, who will have slim pickings in round 2 if they choose to select a corner from a very narrow list of third-tier options (arnette, terrell, or gladney). kristian fulton is what the eagles need from their future outside starter: a tenacious, physical, sticky man cover defender who can play on an island and shut down #1 receivers. kristian fulton at pick 21 would be a dream for philadelphia.

if we can get fulton at 21, then obviously we’ll shift our attention to receiver at pick 53, and there will be plenty of options that don’t represent a significant fall-off from the 2nd tier guys i listed above. if hamler and mims are gone by pick 53, gabriel davis and chase claypool are still legitimate options with up-side rivaling that of higher-ranked guys like jefferson and higgins. the better value would be at safety if dugger or winfield were available, but i can’t imagine the eagles having the discipline to wait on receiver until the end of the 3rd round.

GO EAGLES

babylon berlin, the double shock, precarity, and transformation

Posted in Uncategorized at 3:06 am by Administrator

having finished the third season of babylon berlin yesterday, i can confidently say that this is a profoundly satisfying television show that deserves to be thoroughly spoofed. it’s classic prussian noir, with a bevy of overly serious characters and plenty of suitably haunting music from one of my favorite artists, agnes obel. i embarked on my journey with babylon thinking it was about one thing, only to discover that it is in fact about so many odd, incongruous, and fascinating things. the first season was perhaps plodding and even ritualistic at points, but the show solidly hit its stride by the middle of its climactic second season before breaking new ground in its variegated and emotionally explosive third season. babylon berlin, i’ve come to appreciate, is vastly more than a period piece; it’s a psychological exploration into the experience of approaching a precipice—and experiencing hope even at the brink of what everyone acknowledges will be an unmitigated tragedy.

and so this brings me to the reality that we face as denizens of an infected world. this is not a precipice like other generations have experienced it. we are not on the brink of a world war. we are not facing the extinction of our species. we are simply unprepared for the series of shocks that is about to befall us. first, there is the fear and the transformation it brings—disruption, isolation, and crisis. but later comes the second shock that we are entirely unprepared for—the absence of a clear end to this epidemic, the lack of simple closure, a lingering trauma overflowing into despair. it is this transition from crisis into the slower and more pervasive shock of being unable to return to normalcy that will define the unique trauma of these times. and it is the reason that the covid pandemic will not simply be an international disaster that we survived, in the mold of 9/11 or the global financial crisis of 2008-9. this will be the phenomenon that tilted our way of life and fundamentally altered the trajectory of our evolution as a species.

among the many possible scenarios is the one that i foresee as most probable: the one in which there will not be a vaccine in September, the one in which we learn to live in fear and isolation for a second winter. two percent of the world’s population will be infected by June, and perhaps that would be the extent of COVID’s toll on us if it weren’t for the uncoordinated, decentralized, and ultimately dysfunctional response of many countries including the United States. indeed, the U.S. will see an “oscillating tail” of incidence, as pockets of ongoing transmission infiltrate larger communities where effective lock-down measures initially seemed to be working. by mid-summer, we will be looking at a prevalence of infection of 5%, 1 out of every 20 people in america either immune, symptomatically infected, or asymptomatically transmitting the infection. that is when, regardless of our policy measures, the true paralysis of our economy will ensue. small businesses, regardless of fiscal relief measures, won’t hire back their employees, and many will go under. larger businesses, flush with cash, will deleverage and bunker down, hoping to ride out the storm. lenders might survive with the government’s backing, but they’ll have no one to lend to. the foundation of america’s economic system—the service economy—will simply fail to rebound once the epidemic enters its second and more pervasive stage. the fall season will arrive, and we’ll collectively experience the most deflating reality of all: schools will stay closed.

there’s a difference between a self-limited epidemic disease and an enduring pandemic like COVID. a self-limited epidemic like SARS won’t change our way of life. but an enduring pandemic like COVID will change our values. it will change our attitude toward work, where we experience risk of exposure. it will change our outlook on society as we come to view our neighbors and friends as existential threats to our safety. it will alter our perception of the future, as we come to recognize the profound precarity that we actually experience as citizens of an unstable society. pensions, market returns, medical benefits, and home ownership—these are all ideas that seemed fixed and sensible back when we were collectively committed to spending and borrowing beyond our means, to support the stacks and stacks of ponzi schemes that fueled our interdependence. but it is shocks like these, shocks to the core, that will make us aware of the danger of this interdependence and the true nature of our precarity as individuals. there is no pension. there is no safety net. there is no loan forgiveness. there is only danger; there is only day to day survival; there is only the senselessness of building a life around the purchase of things that are genuinely unnecessary to happiness and undeniably frivolous as well.

the transformation we will undergo is the sea change that all industry fears: the recognition that consumption is not only dangerous but also unsustainable. the collapse that this portends simply can’t be underestimated. we are moving into an era where a universal basic income and guaranteed health insurance for all won’t be aspirational policies; they will be the bare minimum demanded by rank and file americans. we will proceed from there to address the enormous disparities in wealth and health outcomes exposed by the epidemic, as it ravages the nation through repeated cycles of severe infection. economic growth by all the traditional metrics will freeze, even as human awareness and social transformation exponentially accelerate. in a year or two, we will be a socialist nation; in a decade, we will be post-national and without a national agenda. someday soon, we will determine that life cannot return to normal, that people can’t simply return to work, and that is when we will realize, through trauma punctuated by further trauma, that we never wanted things to return to the way that they were

03.25.20

observing the ego

Posted in Uncategorized at 3:43 pm by Administrator

he thinks in decades. and when he loses control, he begins to think in years, in months, in days. these are not calendrical, as one might ordinarily think of them. these are intervals of life, segmented into eras of purpose and responsibility. the ego thinks as my father once thought—my father who plotted his age against my life and its milestones: graduation, university, financial independence.

in times like these, but even in times unlike these, the ego regards those whom I would be inclined to take responsibility for. for how many years must I offer financial support to my children? for how long must I work in order to carry my wife, who earns nothing? for how long do I owe a blood offering of servitude and pain to the world, until I can gain reprieve? everyone is a burden to me. everything is an obligation. life, the joyless exercise, is what I process as my life energies are distributed to all the proper channels and translated into survival: food, shelter, taxes, and freedom from insecurities.

I observe him, the ego. once upon a time, I took his voice as truth, and in response to his truth, I summoned an identity of transcendent capability. this was the superman identity—the idea of myself as a divine being, an adopted child of a mythical, powerful, and vengeful god whose purpose was to destroy the world he had created in his image and rebuild it in his image yet again. the superman identity was capable of absorbing all responsibilities and rising to even greater challenges. the challenge of selfless service. the challenge of sacrificial giving. the challenge of dying for others.

the ego fueled this identity; and this identity spawned immeasurable suffering in my being, manifested in penance, in striving, in ecstacy, and in profound sorrow. and this suffering is what has sustained the power and relevance of my ego through all the years. the ego, who counts the years of suffering, who tells the story of the unsustainable burdens mounted upon my shoulders. like an old man sitting on a hill and bewailing the plight of the city that he sees below, he forgets that he is the one who wished all the pain upon it, so that he could be the one to observe it and thus be aware of himself.

when I breathe, and when I hold him, it is not he who observes what is becoming of me, but rather it is I who sees what he would make of me. for the being of countless and immeasurable sufferings, I feel compassion. I feel compassion for him and for myself, the one who carries him in my being. in fact, I who breathe at times feel such little in common with him, the ego who is constantly holding his breath as the events of the world overtake him. I who breathe recognize the profound impermanence of all things, the unimportance of belief, an unattachment to view, and an appreciation of what causes my suffering. I who breathe do not see my life in chapters of time, in rites of passage, in obligations and responsibilities. I look beyond to the foothills and the mountains and recognize immediately the possibilities of the moment. now, I am here. later, I am not here. now I am in a relationship or a conversation. but later, I will move on, I will be different. the only thing that remains the same is the one thing that is real: the moment and my place in it.

my life has no purpose and no meaning. there is no Wednesday, no Friday, and no sunday. I have nothing to accomplish, and my job is simply an idea for me to hold or to disregard. if I work, then the work I do consists of how I speak and how I listen; it is nothing more complicated than this. I choose whether to come and to go. I receive this moment, the gift of the entire universe, understanding that it is sufficient, and knowing that no wealth or good intention can make it more precious to me

03.24.20

leadership in a time of crisis

Posted in Uncategorized at 7:55 pm by Administrator

it’s been a rocky time to say the least at work. from the very beginning of this new job four months ago, the adjustment was quite difficult. leadership meetings were long, arduous, and disorganized. I had no real precedessor, so the transfer of organizational knowledge was minimal. i was given about twenty-five direct reports from the outset, with very little middle management resources to help me. from the beginning, i was getting complaints from front-line providers who were unhappy with work, threatening to leave, and openly dissatisfied with the senior leadership group of the company. and i was unaware of the desperate financial straits that the company had fallen into over a two-year period. three months into the job, after a series of tense meetings with the board that left us at an impasse, i and the rest of the senior leadership group were forced to take a pay cut.

then covid happened. a leadership group that was already fragmented and overstretched began to suffer from a lack of alignment and progressive conflicts. in the midst of these tensions, we had to abruptly change our service delivery model, handle severe staff shortages, and manage the palpable fear that was pervading the organization.

sleepless nights? sunday night panics? sudden bouts of intense feelings? I’ve suffered from all of it and more. more than once, i found myself imagining an escape plan. even now in my most meditative moments, i take great comfort in the impermanence of all things, including this job. but in the end, i have learned through these many difficult years of managing other people that the true challenge facing me is not external; it is an internal one. and where my focus really needs to be from day to day isn’t on myself but on the others who need what i have to give. i don’t have to be perfect to give my gift; i just have to show up and be willing.

in a time of crisis, I’m quickly learning, there are absolutely career stallers that will prevent growth and success. principal among them is the inability to take criticism. just in the past week, I’ve taken my licks from other members of the executive team, and I’ve dished out a little of it as well. underneath some of the unfair judgments has been some real truth, truth that resonates with me from other feedback I’ve received over the years. it revolves around my tendency to keep my own counsel during times of extreme stress, to act unilaterally without consulting others. i see the value in this feedback, and more fundamentally i see what is needed from me through this feedback. the criticism hurts, but perhaps it does not hurt as much as it might have ten years ago. i can hold the hurt now, and in the other hand i can hold the truth that the criticism holds for me. my team needs me to be more accessible to them, more transparent in my approach, and more intentionally collaborative than i might otherwise be inclined to be during a time that would seem to call for decisive action. i hold this truth, and i receive it. if i cannot receive it, then i have no business leading others.

another career staller during a time of crisis is the inability to flex one’s approach and adapt quickly without defensiveness or personal interest. I’m not sure that I’ve made any major mistakes thus far, but i have failed to address some important blind spots in my contingency planning. moments like this don’t call for apology; they call for utter commitment to the process. already in the past week, I’ve had to change my approach to a process two or three times, knowing that i had put my foot down on something that i now needed to concede. after navigating enough of these crisis situations, i imagine one becomes quite hesitant to put one’s foot down on too many things, given the pains that come with “unsticking” the foot.

most importantly, leadership in a time of crisis requires what looks like resilience but what might be better described as compassion for self and what might truly be, underneath it all, just a lack of serious regard for one’s identity. this is something that meditation has prepared me well for. a few years ago, i might have found myself stewing in my office about a public debate that didn’t go my way. did i say everything i should have? did i win that debate? did i win over the right people through that debate? that self-questioning was inevitable because i had an identity to affirm—an identity of competence, of authority, of correctness. now, through meditation, i have discovered the nature of my ego, and when i observe him, i see how much he feeds upon an idea of identity in order to strengthen himself, at the expense of my consciousness. understanding this allows me to see that everything i might have once considered “a test of my character” is truly as incidental and accidental as it is beautiful and important. the world and its circumstances do not exist to illuminate my greatness. no, it is in fact my consummate ordinariness which so demonstrates the intricate beauty of the universe i am inextricably an extension of.

03.21.20

the eagles: off-season moves and draft projections

Posted in Uncategorized at 7:40 pm by Administrator

in these dark times, the eagles remain a pleasant distraction. thankfully, i’ve been mostly satisfied with how the off-season has gone.

first, let’s start with what i haven’t liked. i didn’t like parting ways with malcolm jenkins, especially after seeing the contract he got from New Orleans. i don’t want to dwell on this too much, because i don’t know what went on behind the scenes to trigger the unexpected separation. but i do want to say this: malcolm jenkins is the best defender i’ve ever seen in an eagles uniform, and i absolutely loved everything that he brought to the game and to his teammates. i’m going to miss him to death, and i absolutely do not think we’re better for losing him.

i didn’t like losing jordan howard and jason peters either. both guys were perfect fits for this team, and i can’t imagine either of them will do nearly as well with any other squad. more importantly, i’m not sure we will be as good without them. i’m not as high as most when it comes to miles sanders and his ability to hit the hole with decisiveness and commitment; and i’m definitely not an andre dillard fan right now. i didn’t like the 2019 eagles’ draft class last year, and i like them all considerably less right now.

had we drafted montez sweat, nasir adderley, and dk metcalf as i’d wanted, we wouldn’t be in such desperate straits at WR and S right now. i’m not saying “i told you so”. i’m just saying that i said it.

let’s move onto the good. overall, i think we’ve done the right thing this off-season. we got a top defensive tackle in his prime in javon hargraves, and we secured one of the league’s stickiest, toughest, and most skilled cornerbacks in darius slay. these were two absolutely necessary acquisitions for the defense, and i daresay this defense immediately projects to be better in 2020. i’m particularly interested in what hargraves’ addition will do to barnett’s snaps, as barnett strikes me as the weak link on this defensive front. slay’s impact on the DB rotation should be fairly obvious; he’ll be our full-time starter assigned to the opposing team’s #1 wide-out, which means that sidney jones and rasul douglas will fight for snaps on the other side while leblanc and maddox man the slot. it’s not an elite cornerback rotation, but it’s better than the league average now. if slay is the only major move we make at corner (and i think it’s all we need for now), then i’d say let’s give sidney jones one more try to win a starting spot before moving on from him for good.

overall, all of these moves say one thing pretty clearly: roseman’s committed to a rebuild. beyond simply getting younger, the eagles are signaling to their players and fanbase that they are no longer in a faux mode of “maintaining success”. i like that. there are fans out there that continue to maintain that our 3 straight years of playoff berths means that we’re not in decline; but like i’ve written repeatedly, this is clearly a squad that’s in need of a significant change in direction. some of that cannot happen until the coaching staff is turned over; but some of that can happen now simply by letting go of some key personalities and committing big money to younger and better talent.

the eagles still continue to have plenty of holes on the roster, and we have to recognize that this won’t be an elite team in 2020 no matter how we play the draft. while wide receiver seems like the obvious intersection of team need and draft offerings, i’d contend that defensive end, safety, and linebacker (in that order) are vastly more important to our rebuild, as we do have decent receiving options for at least the next two seasons in ertz, goedert, sanders, and desean jackson. meanwhile, our pass rush was alarmingly mediocre last year, and our safety group hasn’t looked this tenuous in more than five years. we have two premium draft picks and perhaps one more big move to make in free agency, and i would advise that roseman focus on rebuilding this defense before devoting another valuable draft pick to the offensive unit.

i am going to go on record as stating that i’m all in on Ngakoue, whatever the cost. i would prefer it if we could get him for our 2nd rounder and a future high pick, but if this year’s 1st rounder is what it takes then so be it: get him and pay the man $23 million a year. if we give up this year’s 1st to get him, then our 2nd round pick is our opportunity to get our safety of the future, in Antoine Winfield, Jr (my pick), Kyle Dugger, or Terrell Burgess.

if we can’t get Ngakoue and end up spending free agent money on second or third tier depth at safety and linebacker, then i’d propose that we stick with the draft plan i’ve advocated for in my last two mocks: patrick queen in the 1st and our safety of the future in the 2nd. i love patrick queen, and a versatile, athletic linebacker like queen becomes even more valuable to this defense once we move on from jim schwartz next year. the draft doesn’t have elite DE talent to offer the eagles after young, chaisson, and epenesa come off the board, so we’ll have to roll with graham and barnett in 2020 and hope that one of barnett, sweat, or avery prove worthy of a long-term commitment. that’s a long shot.

i’m sure the eagles will disregard my advice and take justin jefferson, tee higgins, or some other receiver at pick 21. i’m not going to be sour about it, but none of these guys are stars, much less sure starters, in my book. taking a flier on a solid prospect like denzel mims or kj hamler in the 2nd round would make a lot of sense, but i’m fairly sure they’re going to be oversold in a receiver-heavy first 2 rounds. if ruggs falls to us at 21, even i would have a hard time passing on him, but the better part of me would still have to say that it’s not for lack of receiver talent that this offense has sucked balls for the past two years. wentz and pederson (and the deadly combination that they comprise) are the real reasons for two years of uninspiring mediocrity on offense, and until one of them goes, we could put deandre hopkins and michael thomas on this offense and we still wouldn’t score points. wentz, for all his moments, still hasn’t shown us his full potential, which also means that he hasn’t significantly improved over the past three years. that guy needs to figure out a great many things; we need to help him by finding a coach who can teach him the game of football.

i’m starting to feel a little angry right now, so i’m going to stop right here and call it a game

03.15.20

flatten the curve

Posted in Uncategorized at 10:32 pm by Administrator

you can see where the administration is putting its attention. zero percent interest rates, quantitative easing, and dollar swaps. the US wants the big-cap businesses to weather the storm and keep the equity markets afloat for the 2020 election. meanwhile, there continues to be no systematic strategy on containment of the infection, which is hitting the exponential rate of the curve and threatening to infect more than 10% of the american population within the next 8 weeks.

a lock-down of the country—mandatory school closures, restricted inter-state travel, closure of restaurants and bars, curfews, and home quarantines—has to happen now and must be federally implemented. as things stand, these decisions are being left to the states, and as a result they’re being rolled out in an illogical and ineffective manner. these are half-measures. you cannot contain an epidemic like this with half-measures.

a total lock-down of the nation even at this relatively advanced stage of the epidemic could significantly “flatten the curve”—mitigate the spike in day-to-day incidence that would otherwise be expected—and thus protect a fragile healthcare system from being overwhelmed. we don’t want the situation that is unfolding in parts of italy, where ventilators are being rationed based on projected probabilities of survival. but that’s exactly where we’re headed right now. my kaiser doc yesterday told me that she can’t protect herself or her staff with masks because upper management told her that they didn’t have enough supply. masks are routine personal protective equipment. one of the biggest and best equipped health systems in the country doesn’t have enough masks to protect its own healthcare workers? imagine what the situation will be like in 4 weeks, when incidence is vastly higher and patients are lining up to be seen for serious respiratory symptoms.

the lock-down needs to be mandated now, and it needs to be maintained for at least several times the estimated incubation period of the disease in order to curb disease incidence and give hospitals a chance to adequately triage and treat the patients at highest risk of complication. if the feds don’t do it, then the american public has every right to sue them for damages and lives lost when this epidemic spirals out of control.

obviously a lock-down is not without consequences. fiscal relief has to be structured so that small business get a break on their leases and loans; 8-10 weeks out of business will be fatal for many if not most of them. if those businesses go belly up, then the current relief measures going to the banks and big lenders won’t be enough to prevent them from falling into a credit crisis 3-6 months from now. there would be no better time than now to consider an emergency universal basic income in order to keep sick people from working and to protect gig workers from exposing themselves to risk in a manner that will multiply the epidemic. we need to be thinking about “main street”, not wall street, at a savage time like this, and the trump administration’s focus on saving face in the equity markets is brutally misguided.

it’s obvious that COVID testing efforts have been a disaster in the U.S. the first wave of tests were both limited and defective, wasting valuable time early on in the epidemic when surveillance and contact tracing could have been effective in slowing our transition to community spread. at this point, the value of commercial testing is now very debatable. four weeks ago, more testing would have been valuable; four weeks from now, more testing will simply be wasteful. until home testing or drive-through testing is made widely available, the only option for most americans will be their local ERs or clinics, and these access points are not built to withstand the incredible demand of hypochondriacal and fanatically anxious american consumers. here too is where the feds need to be very clear: young people under the age of 50 without chronic conditions shouldn’t be tested, won’t be offered testing if they ask for it, and will be charged a major penalty if they find a way to coerce a provider into doing it for them. they should stay home and not go to work; and an official lock-down would make it that much easier to enforce. assuming community spread now (a safe assumption), COVID testing should now be reserved only for the chronically ill and elderly and in the event that they have respiratory infection symptoms that are worsening after 5-7 days. those are the patients that you want to identify and put on remdesivir.

that’s not to say that young people won’t die of COVID. despite the meta data suggesting 0.2 case fatality rates under 40, there are too many case reports of young and previously healthy adults dying of COVID to ignore. the impact of this virus on an individual level is virtually impossible to predict and probably depends heavily on genetic variations in expression of the ACE2 receptor. that’s the scariest impact of this disease; we just can’t predict exactly who will be able to handle this virus effectively and who on the other hand will be at high risk of ARDS. i have high blood pressure myself, and i’m quite worried that i will be at high risk of complications if/when i’m infected. like most of the elderly or chronically ill people in the U.S., i’m just trying to survive this epidemic long enough to make it to a vaccine.

assuming we do institute a lock-down in the next week, we can probably expect to hit peak incidence of infection in about 4-6 weeks and could potentially begin lifting restrictions region by region based on community surveillance data starting 8-10 weeks from now. but if we delay a lock-down, we’ll easily see incidence rise over the next 8-12 weeks and may not see peak incidence until late may; we’d have no opportunity to lift travel and business restrictions until august or september at the earliest, putting us in peril of damaging future phases of the business cycle with fall season school closures and extended moratoria on other critical business activities. there will be a recession in the U.S. regardless of how the feds handle a lock-down; but the second scenario would render the merciful “sharp and fast” recession scenario almost impossible.

the long-term impacts of this pandemic will be both devastating and instrumental in accelerating social progress. the most devastating impacts of this pandemic, beyond the human toll of infection, will be geopolitical in nature. without a doubt, COVID’s impact on commodity pricing and emerging market economies will destabilize regions of the world; i’m concerned about south america and the middle east in particular. social upheaval, major coups, and even warfare are not out of the question, as regimes struggle to hold onto power in the face of spiraling unemployment and rapidly depleting cash reserves. more broadly, there could be further resistance to globalization and international cooperation, and the international backlash against china could be long-lasting and pervasive. in the midst of this upheaval, it will be difficult to recognize silver linings, but there will be very important developments that come out of the 2020 global crisis. one of them will be compelling evidence that we can reverse global warming by reducing economic activity. another will be an american movement toward supporting andrew yang’s idea of a universal basic income and bernie sanders’ vision of medicare for all—both of which i anticipate will be implemented during the severe and prolonged recession that will begin in 2020 and extend through all of 2021. lastly, i think that there will be cultural changes particularly in the West that will better prepare us for future and possibly more deadly viral epidemics—because these are inevitable.

this is about to be the darkest and most difficult era that anyone under the age of 50 has experienced. this is not going to be a hard and fast health crisis; it’s the tipping point of a major transformation. but it is at the same time the gift that the world has to give us now, here at the precipice of our sustainability as a species. there’s no going back. we have to change now

03.04.20

foles and wentz

Posted in Uncategorized at 3:05 am by Administrator

the eagles made a mistake last year when we let go of foles. we have a chance to correct that mistake; but we have to be decisive.

first, we have to sell wentz to chris ballard and the colts. there’s a deal to be made, and we just have to be courageous enough to start the conversation. the price should be three 1st rounders and a 2020 3rd rounder. once the deal is within reach, we can seal the deal with jacksonville; and the deal with jacksonville is that we’ll accept jacksonville’s 2020 5th round pick in exchange for taking on foles and his massive guaranteed contract.

in the end, we’ll be getting an extra 1st, 3rd, and 5th in 2020 in order to exchange wentz for foles, with indy’s 1st round picks in 2021 and 2022 as well. we can almost certainly leverage one of three 3rd rounders plus a 4th and the extra 5th to move up into the 2nd. with picks 13 (henry ruggs) and 21 (patrick queen) in the 1st, two picks in the 2nd (winfield and aj terrell), and two picks in the 3rd (davidson and niang), we’ll have what we need to rebuild the team the right way. and the cherry on top, of course, is that we’ll have the better QB. maybe not the better QB by skill set and wonderlic testing—but definitely the better QB for doug pederson and the eagles.

that’s all i’ve got to say. lurie and roseman, make this shit happen!